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They died in a host of ways. The causes of death include rocket-propelled grenade fire and the improvised explosive devices that have been responsible for roughly half of all deaths and injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. Their deaths were also the result of vehicle crashes, electrocutions, heatstroke, friendly fire, and suicides in theater. Official Pentagon numbers do not include the many troops who return home and kill themselves as a result of psychological wounds such as PTSD.
The VA could be doing more to address this mental health crisis. Health conditions also improved for Afghans during the occupation, with mortality rates for children in particular falling. A study in The Lancet Global Health found that between and , mortality for children under 5 in Afghanistan fell by 29 percent.
Given current birth levels in Afghanistan, that could translate to roughly 44, lives saved annually due to reduced child mortality.
It would be a stretch, however, to give the war on terror sole credit for this; many neighboring countries saw child mortality gains in this period, too, at least in official statistics.
Iraq, by contrast, did not see notable gains in child mortality post-invasion. Their most recent estimates were released on September 1. These are conservative figures; they exclude, for instance, civilian deaths in countries like the Philippines and Kenya that have seen drone or special ops engagements but for which reliable civilian death figures are not available.
It uses only confirmed deaths that are directly due to the wars, rather than estimated deaths using mortality surveys; the latter method has produced much higher civilian death estimates of the war in Iraq , for instance.
We can take a narrower view and look only at US lives lost. Crawford and Lutz estimate that 15, American military members, Defense Department civilians, and contractors have died in these conflicts — a much lower toll. And given how often humanitarian rationales were invoked to defend aspects of the war on terror, it feels important to include the full humanitarian costs and the full humanitarian benefits in our accounting.
Some may object to including the latter deaths here on an equal footing with civilians and allied militaries. But failing to do so risks dramatically undercounting civilian deaths. Obviously, not every adult male killed in the drone war was an opposition fighter. Then there are the costs in terms of people not killed but displaced by war. A paper released by the Costs of War Project last month estimates that Iraq produced 9.
The authors estimate a total of 38 million displaced people, mostly in their own countries, as a result of US wars. There are indirect costs as well. To calculate the latter, they use a measure known as the value of a statistical life. The idea is to use, for instance, the extra wages that workers in especially dangerous jobs demand to be paid to estimate how much the typical person is willing to pay to extend their life.
More plausibly, the war on terror could be justified through, say, the far greater number of lives saved through aid to the Afghan health system. Here, too, though, the necessary number of lives saved needs to be enormous to justify the costs. Times 20 means at least , lives saved. There were also gains with life expectancy for adults, reductions in maternal mortality. The figure of 25, deaths averted a year he cites is actually lower than the rough estimate of 44, I came to above on reduced child mortality.
But even so, , total lives saved is likely an overestimate. The reduction in child mortality did not occur instantaneously between and ; it was gradual, meaning the gains, if they were the result of US actions, were only in effect for a fraction of the US occupation. And doubling the lives saved estimate to 1 million, without a specific reason to think an equivalent number of lives were saved through reductions in non-child mortality, seems foolish.
It is also important to think of the opportunity cost of the war. That program, then and now, buys and distributes massive quantities of antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV and AIDS in developing countries, and promotes condom distribution and other prevention measures.
It is truly one of George W.
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